Tag Archives: Polls

The major flaw in the Vote Together approach – can you trust the polls?

For LeadNow, the organization behind the Vote Together initiative operating in swing ridings across the country, the decision of who to vote for is straightforward: if you want to stop Stephen Harper from being reelected, vote for the local candidate with the best chance of beating the Conservatives.

To that end, they’ve mobilized a small army of volunteers, and nearly ninety thousand people in key ridings have pledged to vote according to their recommendations on Election Day.

Now, regular readers of The Alfalfafield will know that I have my issues with “strategic” voting – its inherently centrist bias is well-known, and it’s a woefully inadequate solution to the systemic problems with our political system. But today, I’d like to put forth a purely procedural criticism of LeadNow’s effort, which is surely the most well-organized strategic voting initiative in Canada’s history.

It’s a simple question: why should we trust their recommendations?

In order to ascertain which ridings are the closest and which candidates have the greatest prospects for defeating the Conservative Party, LeadNow has commissioned a series of riding-level polls. On the basis of these polls, they’ve issued recommendations so far for sixteen key ridings, with more recommendations to come in the final week of the campaign. So, for example, in the neighbouring Vancouver Island ridings of Nanaimo-Ladysmith and Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, LeadNow recommends that strategic voters vote for the NDP, on the basis of local polling which shows that party’s candidates in the best position to win.

Except that there’s a small problem with LeadNow’s numbers – they aren’t accurate. Continue Reading

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